Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Abstract Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies dozens to hundreds planets. To determine requirements next-generation address these questions, we have developed Bioverse . combines existing knowledge statistics with a survey simulation hypothesis testing framework whether proposed space-based direct imaging transit-spectroscopy capable detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between properties exoplanets. Following description code, apply an ambitious or transit would able extent circumstellar zone study Earth-like Given recent Earth-sized planets likely much rarer than previously believed, find missions large volumes necessary population worlds. Moving forward, provides methodology performing trade future observatory concepts maximize their ability including specific examples explored here.